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Performance of Rain-fed Aman Rice Yield in Bangladesh in the Presence of Climate Change

Md. Abdur Rashid Sarker
Department of Economics, University of Rajshahi, Rajshahi, 6205, Bangladesh

Khorshed Alam
School of Commerce, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba QLD, 4350, Australia

Jeff Gow
Department of Agricultural Economics, Stellenbosch University, Stellenbosch, 7600, South Africa

Abstract/ Executive Summary:

This paper uses the framework of the Just–Pope production function to evaluate the impacts of climate change on yields of the rainfed Aman rice crop in Bangladesh. It analyses disaggregated district-level data on climate variables and Aman rice yield over a 48-year time horizon. The results reveal that changes in maximum temperatures have had positive and negative effects on yield in the linear and quadratic functional forms, respectively. However, the elasticity values in the variance function confirm that maximum temperature is risk-increasing for Aman rice while minimum temperature is likely to decrease yield variability. Rainfall has become risk-increasing for Aman rice. Based on three climate change scenarios, this paper also reveals that future climate change is expected to increase the variability of Aman rice yields. Finally, statistically significant dummies for different in-country climate zones require zone-specific adaptation policies to reduce the adverse impacts of climate change.

Keywords: Aman rice; Bangladesh; Climate change

Location: Dhaka, Mymenshingh, Faridpur, Chittagong, Commilla, Bogra, Sylhet, Rajshahi, Dinajpur, Rangpur, Khulna, Jessore, and Barisal, Bangladesh

Start Date:

End Date:

Program Area: Crop-Soil-Water Management

Commodity: Rice

Objectives:

The objective of this study is to assess the impacts of climate change on the production of the Aman rice variety in Bangladesh over the period 1975–2012.

Methodology:

Data, its sources and basic properties This study uses cross-sectional time-series data for Aman rice from 13 greater districts in Bangladesh. The selection of districts was based on the availability of consistent data, on both climatic and rice yield. The districts included were Dhaka, Mymenshingh, Faridpur, Chittagong, Commilla, Bogra, Sylhet, Rajshahi, Dinajpur, Rangpur, Khulna, Jessore, and Barisal. District-level climate data for monthly maximum temperature, monthly minimum temperature and monthly total rainfall were collected from the Bangladesh Meteorological Department for 48 years covering the period 1964–2012. The monthly data were then used to group the climate variables into seasonal averages for temperature and seasonal totals for rainfall over each month of the growing season for Aman, which runs from July to December annually. Data on Aman rice yield (measured in kilograms per acre (kg acre⁻¹ ) were drawn from various issues of the Yearbook of Agricultural Statistical of Bangladesh for the period 1975–2012. The selection of the 13 districts, which are organized into seven climate zones was based on Rashid (1991) which divided Bangladesh into seven climatic sub-zones. These sub-zones are described briefly: Southeastern zone (A): This zone consists of the greater Chittagong district and Chittagong Hill Tracts and a coastal strip extending from southwest Sundarban to the south of Comilla. Heavy rainfall and small range of mean temperature are the major climatic characteristics of this region. Northwestern zone (D): This area consists Dinajpur, Bogra, Pabna and Kushtia districts. The main climatic conditions are hot summer temperatures and moderate rainfall. Western zone (E): This is the driest and hottest sub-zone, which includes the greater Rajshahi districts and parts of adjacent districts. Very hot summer temperatures and relatively low rainfall are the climatic features of this zone. This is the area of interest for the farm-level analysis. Southwestern zone (F): This zone comprises Khulna, Jessore and Faridpur districts with fewer extremes in both temperature and rainfall. Climatic characteristics are hot summer temperatures and fairly heavy rainfall. Southcentral zone (G): This is an area of mild summers and fairly heavy rainfall. This zone consists of Dhaka, Tangail, Mymensingh and Barisal districts. The summary statistics on rice yield and climate variables are illustrated which shows a number of basic properties of the variables in the form of some descriptive statistics. Also, higher means are associated with higher standard deviations: the correlation coefficient of values for means and standard deviations is 0.996 and significant at the 0.01 level. With regard to the climate variables, the variations in rainfall are more remarkable than the variations in both maximum and minimum temperatures.

Source of Information: Renewable Agriculture and Food Systems

Article Link (Online Journal): https://doi.org/10.1017/S1742170517000473

Funding Source:

Budget:

Total Budget (Tk.) :

Achievement/Findings:

Climate change will have potential effects on the mean and variability of crop yields. The main aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of climate changes on the yield and variability for Aman rice using regionally disaggregated data. The Just–Pope production function was used as the empirical framework in a balanced panel data specification to achieve the aim. The maximum temperature is positively related to Aman mean rice yield in the linear function while the relationship is negative in the quadratic function. The elasticity values under the variance function imply that maximum temperature is risk-increasing for Aman rice. However, an increase in minimum temperature is likely to decrease the yield variability. Therefore, the minimum temperature is risk-decreasing for Aman rice. Finally, the impacts of rainfall on yield variability are positive for Aman rice. This confirms that rainfall is risk-increasing for Aman rice. Three-time scenarios (2030, 2050 and 2100) were developed to model potential climate changes on rice yield and its variability. The changes in rice yield for each of these scenarios were measured using the percentage changes in maximum temperature, minimum temperature and rainfall in an aggregate form. The results reveal that future climate change is expected to increase the variability of Aman rice yield. These results provide further evidence about the potential productivity losses, which will occur with future changes in climate variables. Moreover, most of the regional dummy variables are statistically significant with differential impacts geographically on rice yield. This shows that different climate zones can be impacted differently by climate change. Therefore, the severity of climate change effects on rice yields may vary between climate zones.

Knowledge Management: Journal